Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Max bullish on Qatar


I'm max bullish on Qatar! It's a little known story, but the prospects are amazing. I was twice there in the past month and learned a lot from top officials inthe country; Qatar will double its GNP in the next 5 years. By 2011, Qatar's gas exports will be worth 1.5 times the value of Abu Dhabi's oil exports. LNG exports are scheduled to double over the next 3 to5 years!... The population is scheduled to double as well within the next 5 years! I'm buying... so join me and buy Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities fund!

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Markets

I am pretty convinced that markets are in for a real adjustment. I was travelling this week with a famous manager, who is a good friend of George Soros. He manages some $5bln and his bank manages a total of $22bln+. He explained that he took his clients out of equities last summer and that due to the credit crunch, weaker dollar and oil prices, he sees a major correction ahead. I agree with that. Buy hedge funds and go long on cash and Middle Eastern equities...

Friday, October 5, 2007

India vs China


I strongly believe that despite its weaker infrastructure, India will grow faster and will be more stable than China in the long term. If you are poor in India, you have a chance to fix it because it's a democracy. Even better, religion tells you that you can fix it in the next life! In China, people see vast wealth gaps, while their government tells them that everyone is equal; this will lead to substantial unrest in the future.


Someone else who thinks India will overtake China:

Saturday, September 22, 2007

Entrepreneurs

I just read a short article describing what are the 7 qualities that employees must have to succeed in an entrepreneurial environment. This applies very well to our current situation as we are setting up a new bank in the UAE.
The qualities are: Resourcefulness, take-charge attitude, unending energy, growth potential, multi-tasking ability, they are team players and they are improvement oriented.

Here's the full article: Dennis: Blue Chip Blues (PDF)

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

My 9 - 11 story


I was in New York that day - 6 years ago. Early in the morning of 9-11, a colleague and I went to our first client meeting, fortunately mid-town. Half way into our meeting, the CEO finally joined us, but to announce that a plane had crashed into the WTC. We went to the windows to watch, suddenly witnessed the second plane crash and then saw the towers collapse. We went down on the street and people were starting to walk back from downtown; they looked like this man in the picture, covered in white dust. Police cars and firetrucks were flying up and down Park Avenue and Madison. People were shocked. It was eerie, unreal and deep sadness and despair were floating in the air...


That morning, because the phone lines were all down, it took me 2 hours before I could reach my wife and family to tell them I was OK. My daughter had a hard time believing I was alive as it was difficult for her to dissociate the World Trade Center from New York. 9-11 was a Tuesday and I couldn't make it back home to San Francisco until Saturday.


During the days stuck in New York my colleague and I watched TV, talked to people, drank and ate a lot. Maybe we ate so much because in front of all these deaths and such disaster, it felt good to be alive; still, it was a sick feeling to do so and - somehow - we felt so guilty...


In New York, on September 11, 2001, I also cried - for the first time in a long time.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Chips in your body


U.S. scientists are developing chips that, implanted in one's brain, could allow an amputee to control an artificial arm by thinking about it. Others are developing chips that could be implanted behind your eyes to correct your vision. Some are coming up with chips that could feedback you, your doctor or your hospital whether you are in need of a certain treatment. Who will benefit from that? Us, of course. But cynically, insurance companies as well; they may demand that you provide feedback from your body chips to ascertain how healthy you are and if you are indulging!... Watch the premiums rise!

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Earth in Action




Check out this link: it's amazing how fast our world is moving. Look at the number of births and if you had a child, remember how special, unique, and magically eternal that moment was... well, the numbers are a crude reality test...

Sunday, August 5, 2007

New people on board!


This week has been quite something: we went from 1 employee (myself) 2 weeks ago to 4! I am extremely happy with the current small team; there's a lot of positive energy in the air and all are already contributing. Also, all of a sudden, this new adventure is becoming real.

Friday, July 27, 2007

Bonum vinum laetificat cor hominis


I just finished reading "Fit for the Fast Track", which I recommend. Among others, the author recommends daily intake of 2 glasses of red wine to thin the blood and provide the body with some powerful cancer-busting anti-oxidants! No wonder, we French live longer! Cheers, mate!

PS: translation of the title: "Good wine gladdens a person's heart"

Thursday, July 19, 2007

New sms lingo


Got to keep up with the new msn/sms lingo! My kids helped me by putting together the following list:

LBR - Looser beyond repair

LOL - Laugh out loud

WTF - What the fuck

LMAO - Laughing my ass off

G2G - Got to go

POS - Parents over shoulder

THX - Thanks

CU - See you

LSR - Looser

STFU - Shut the fuck up

OMG - Oh my God!

BRB - Be right back

EFFIU - I love you so much

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Radio Interview

I was on the Dubai Eye 103.8 this morning. Click on the link to hear the interview.
It doesn't beat "Good Morning Vietnam" but it's business; what can I say!

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidDE070718070850562800/l180720070731

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

I'm back


Sorry, I've been really busy and haven't had time to post. Here is a random list of what happened recently:


- I was in Italy with my wife for a week in Portofino and Florence in Italy in amazing hotels; it was "divine" as my South African friends say!


- We found out that our cat, Tommy, is HIV. It's not contagious but he will probably die from it within a year. The whole family and especially my daughter is really upset.


- My first colleague joined me in my new Dubai office. It's great to have someone around!


- My 14 year old son is in Mexico learning Spanish and building homes for the poor. I'm pretty proud.


- My 11 year old daughter is in Switzerland for her first summer camp to play tennis. I'm pretty proud.


- ABN AMRO, my former employer, is about to be swallowed up by Barclays or RBS/Santander/Fortis... I still remember the days when we were elected "The Best Bank in the World" by IFR....


- I'm getting better at yoga, but my skiing is stagnating... thank God a new course will be up and running in September!


- I read Attali's book: "une histoire du future" ("a history of the future") - amazing stuff, despite the fact I do not particularly like the author.


I'm back.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

WEF


I just got back from the World Economic Forum is Jordan and would like to share some of the highlights from those days;

Main risks that could affect substantially negatively the Middle East:

1. Chinese economic hard landing
2. Global asset price collapse
3. Retrenchment from globalization
4. Geopolitical and geostrategic instability

Other risks highlighted:

1. Oil price shock/energy supply interruptions
2. US current account deficit/fall in US$
3. Climate change
4. Loss of freshwater services

Three different scenarios out to 2025 were identified by a research team from the WEF for the Middle East: "Oasis", "Sandstorm" and "The Fertile Gulf."

"Oasis" describes a scenario where regional stability continues to be a challenge for the GCC countries, which are nevertheless able to achieve substantial institutional reforms. The GCC countries develop strong identities and work together to coordinate diplomatic and economic policies. The GCC countries are an oasis of stability and prosperity in an otherwise troubled region.

"Sandstorm" describes a future where regional instability is a defining factor, affecting the ability of the GCC to carry out much needed institutional reforms. Caught in a shifting, violent environment, the GCC countries are blinded, unable to navigate their way out of the sandstorm and identify opportunities for prosperity for their populations.

"The Fertile Gulf" describes the rise of the GCC countries as innovation hubs in a global environment characterized by strong demand for energy an d increasing globalization. Regional stability gives the GCC countries the opportunity to focus on enhancing their human capital at all levels, investing heavily in education while proceeding carefully with political and institutional reform to support their growing economies and societies.


Political Issues:

Iran

All GCC participants openly expressed their strong worries about Iran's nuclear program. There are doubts that the Iranian nuclear program is purely for civilian use.

Iran representatives did not deny their interference in Irak, for which they were strongly criticized by Jordanian, Iraki and US officials.

The US representatives as well as the Irakis explained their high degree of frustration with Iran smugling weapons and bombs into Irak.


Philanthropy

Most government officials, including Queen Rania of Jordan, admitted that the government alone cannot help society and that the private sector has to play an active role. The private sector is increasingly doing so in the region.

New energies were often discussed and mentioned as an area where the GCC states should be investing more. The billionaire, Naguib Sawiris, owner of Orascom Telecom, Egypt said: "We should invest in renewable energy".


Impact of Oil Boom on the region ecomies

Over the last 5 years, GNP for the Gulf region has doubled, from $600 billion to $1.2 trillion.

In the last few years, $500 billion of wealth has been accumulated.


Conclusion:

Participants were overwhelmingly enthusiastic about the prospects for GCC economies. That's also my bet if the regional cong=flicts don't spread out.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Waterskiing in RAK

I'm spending my mornings waterskiing in between my two jobs...

I'm very lucky as I am being coached by Xenia, who is the #1 Russian woman waterskier; indeed, the Russian national team is currently training in RAK.

Gwenaelle came with me 2 days ago and took this short video of me in the slalom. After that, we had lunch by a pool - tough life in between 2 jobs!...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqzH4vSYrvQ

Monday, April 16, 2007

First day out of the office!


So, this was it! My first day out of the office. (I'll be back tomorrow for another meeting, but today was a real day away from AA. )


What did I do?


First I went swimming 2 kilometers for an hour with a coach; I swam the 25m in 15 seconds and the 400m in 6:15 - which is far away from my top times when I was on the swim team in college... but I was still happy with the times.


After that, I drove to RAK to do 2 sets of waterskiing! Then I did a few emails and calls, picked up the kids at school, cooked them dinner and took my wife out for dinner at Pepper Crab (highly recommended!). I guess I could live like that for some time,... but it won't happen! I'll be starting my new job early May, so I only get 10 days of R&R...

Tonight, I'm beat - and it feels good.

Monday, April 2, 2007

Resigning: how does it feel?


Everyone keeps asking me how I feel now that I've resigned. Here's the listof my emotions in priority order:


- relieved that the news is out

- excited to change careers

- energized by my new challenge

- confident that success lies ahead

- sad to leave some good friends and colleagues

- pleased with the professional reaction of my boss and the Bank

- happy to stay in Dubai and in the Middle East

- surprised how easy the whole thing was

- and of course, richer!...

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Resignation


Yesterday, I resigned from ABN AMRO, after 14 years there. It was a pretty major decision. As the Bank is now merging, I feel that it is about to become a very different organization - so this is the right time to go.


I will be staying in Dubai to set up the first Independent Asset Manager in the Middle East, together with a small elite Swiss institution. I am very excited by this new challenge.


My resignation will be announced to the teams tomorrow (April 1st!...) I will announce the name of the Swiss institution at the end of April.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, the world will shake." Napoleon


Yesterday, I learned that there are 80 million Air Conditionning units that are built every year. Out of that, 60 million are made in China... The Chinese have announced that they will start an automotive industry and are already building a Land Cruiser type vehicle. They want to dominate that industry in the next 5 years. After that, they have the same aspirations for the airline industry.


Just think about this: in 1850, China and India represented 40% of the world trade. Today, they account for 6% of the world GDP, but 40% of its population. Napoleon is about to be proven right.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Floods in Oman!






I just got back from Oman where we had massive rains. It took 8 hours to drive back from Muscat to Dubai. Check out the cars and trucks that were overturned as well as the rescue helicopters. At times, there was a full meter of water to cross on the main highway. Branches, tree trunks and mud took over the roads. At one point I had to inspect the road barefoot to find the best way through mud and sludge!

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

US Multinational moves to Dubai!



On Sunday, Halliburton Company, the largest military contractor in Iraq announced that it will be moving its headquarters along with its CEO from Houston to Dubai.

<- click on the pic. to see Halliburton!

Why are they doing this?
In 2006, over one third or 38 percent of Halliburton's $13 billion oil revenue was generated in the eastern hemisphere, which indicates that the company already does a lot of business in the Middle East. Dubai is the gateway to Middle East oil and many countries have already poured money into there. The Chinese government and corporations have been investing and developing in Dubai and clearly Halliburton wants a bigger piece of that pie.

In addition, with the tax benefits, Halliburton and more companies will look to relocate to Dubai; that could be why Dubai is only now getting off the starting blocks...

Monday, March 12, 2007

Gilles at the Gulf Art Fair


Check me out sitting on a $30,000 chair made of teddy bears! A real board room seat...

Friday, March 9, 2007

Buy ME Contemporary Art!


I've decided I'm going to start a collection of Middle East art.


Prices of Indian art have risen to more than 20 times their original value since 2001. Last year’s total sales of around £106m are expected to double this year. From talking to friends in that sector, all believe that the same thing will happen with Middle East art. The success of the DIFC Gulf Art Fair which is taking place right now is a good indication of that trend.


If you want to buy contemporary ME art, a good place to start is the gallery B21 in Dubai: www.b21gallery.com

Monday, March 5, 2007

Dubai Cranes


I usually go for really short blogs, but this article is really interesting and insightful about Dubai:


The Cranes of Dubai, February 23, 2007By Stephen S. Roach Morgan Stanley, New York

It has been almost three weeks since I returned from my latest trip to the Middle East, but I am still haunted by the sight of the cranes of Dubai. According to construction trade sources, somewhere between 15% to 25% of the 125,000 construction cranes currently operating in the world today are located in Dubai. As a macro person, I am struck by two possible interpretations of this astonishing development: It could be a property bubble of epic proportions or it may be emblematic of a new Middle East that challenges its long-standing role as a financial recycling machine. Either outcome could have profound consequences for world financial markets and the global economy. The comparison with Shanghai Pudong -- China's massive urban development project of the 1990s -- is unavoidable. I saw Pudong rise from the rice fields and never thought anything could surpass it. I was wrong. Based on industry sources, 26.8 million square feet of office space is expected to come on line in Dubai in 2007, alone -- more than six times the peak rate of completions in Pudong in 1999 and nearly equal to the total stock of 30 million square feet of office space in downtown Minneapolis. Based on current projections, another 42 million square feet should come on line in Dubai in 2008 -- the equivalent of adding the office space of a downtown San Francisco. There is one obvious and critically important difference between these two urban development projects: Pudong has an indigenous support base of 1.3 billion Chinese citizens. Dubai's current population is 1.3 million. Throw in the entire native population of the UAE and the support base is still only around 4 million domestic citizens. That's right, a region with less than 0.5% the population of China is out-building the biggest construction boom in modern Chinese history. That doesn't necessarily spell trouble. After all, construction and economic development go hand in hand. The problems arise when building cycles go to extremes -- fueled by speculation or funded by the easy money of state-directed lending. The jury is out on Dubai, although it's hard not to take note of the obvious excesses -- ski-domes in the desert, offshore cities in the shape of palm trees and the "world," a massive 8-runway second airport under construction, the Tiger- and now Sergio-led golf-course bonanza, Venetian-like canals for the urban cruise, a world record 160-story skyscraper, and on and on. Dubai aspires to be the premier financial center and destination tourist resort for the Middle East. It may well get there. The problem is that other urban centers in the region are vying for the same title. Take a look at Doha, Bahrain, Riyadh, and even nearby Abu Dhabi. Far too many are in the same chase. Bubble or not, the Dubai-led Gulf building boom is not an isolated development. Throughout the region, it has been accompanied by expanded infrastructure efforts, rapidly growing commitments to education and medicine, increased industrialization, and the growth of domestic capital market activity. These trends are emblematic of a new and important development in the Middle East that distinguishes the current period of elevated oil prices from the oil shocks of the past -- a massive push toward internal development. The "Dubai factor" simply was not present in the two oil shocks of the 1970s or in the brief surge of oil prices in 1990. Lacking in domestic spending commitments, the inflow of elevated oil revenues spun quickly through a revolving door -- reinvested in world financial markets, especially dollar-based assets. Such petro-dollar recycling quickly became synonymous for the oil shock. This shock is different. As noted above, internal absorption is now very much in focus for oil-producing countries in the Middle East. As oil prices have surged in recent years, imports of goods and services of the world's major oil producers more than doubled from around $170 billion in 1999 to $355 billion in 2005. At the same time, according to IMF estimates, primary government expenditures -- a good proxy for publicly sponsored infrastructure and social spending initiatives -- accounted for fully 15% of GDP growth in 2005 in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman); by contrast, this share was basically "zero" in 2002. Moreover, the region's fiscal authorities are mindful of the policy mistakes of the past, when mean-reverting oil prices led to substantial government budget deficits for those who had been too aggressive in opening up the spending spigot. For the developing economies of the Middle East, the IMF is estimating central government surpluses of a little more than 8% of GDP in 2007 -- about the same as in 2006 but a swing of around 11 percentage points of GDP from the 3% average deficits of 2002-03. This more prudent fiscal response is a very encouraging development that could avoid the boom-bust cycles of the 1980s and thereby set the stage for more sustainable state-led spending initiatives in the years ahead. Notwithstanding the push toward internal absorption, Middle East oil-producing states have not turned their backs on dollar-denominated assets. Due largely to dollar-pegged currencies, GCC monetary authorities still need to invest a large portion of their outsize portfolio of official foreign exchange reserves in dollar-based assets. But the combination of new domestic spending programs and reserve diversification strategies challenges the time-honored conclusion that petro-dollar recycling is an automatic outgrowth of rising oil prices. There is an added and important twist in the current climate: America's post-9/11 Patriot Act now makes it much more difficult for Middle East portfolio investors to transfer funds into the US. At the same time, the recent controversy over the purchase of US assets by Dubai Ports World, together with congressional efforts currently underway to tighten up restrictions on foreign direct investment into the US -- the so-called CFIUS approval process -- also discourages dollar-centric buying of Middle East investors. An offset comes from the sharp corrections in local stock markets since late 2005 -- underscoring the risks of the domestic capital markets option for non-dollar diversifications strategies. But should these markets start to recover, I suspect local buying will intensify rather quickly -- diverting assets away from lower-return alternatives in the US and elsewhere in the developed world. In short, there are many reasons to believe that in the current period of sharply elevated oil prices, the petro-dollar recycling story may be far less compelling than it used to be. This conclusion has important implications for world financial markets. Most importantly, it challenges consensus views that high oil prices create a natural bid for dollar-denominated assets. In a climate where dollar risk remains an ongoing concern, that could be an especially important point for the currency debate. In light of recent dollar-diversification concerns expressed by reserve managers in the Middle East -- especially those in the UAE, Qatar, Iran, and Syria -- that possibility should not be taken lightly. The cranes of Dubai are emblematic of a much deeper point: We need to update our thinking about the Gulf economy -- especially insofar as its internal development efforts are concerned, but also with respect to its role in world financial markets. It was only a little over 33 years ago when rising oil prices first came into play. Since then, the economic development of Middle East oil producers has been nothing short of extraordinary. Dubai underscores a critical difference between then and now. Even if it ends up being a bubble, I suspect there will be no turning back for the new Middle East. In a world where the globalization debate is dominated by China, it is high time to broaden our horizons.

Saturday, March 3, 2007

Leadership through music


Friday night, I had dinner with a friend of mine, Miha Pogačnik. Miha is a violin virtuoso, cultural expert, business maverick and Slovenian Cultural Ambassador with an exceptional capacity to use classical masterpieces to inspire business leaders to "think out of the box". Using a unique methodology, he has recognized the powerful synergies between intellect and emotion as a crucial factor for true leadership and innovation.

Miha helped me 2 years ago with forming the team I inherited in Dubai. I highly recommend him to anyone who is going through a team crisis, taking on a new team or just wants to inspire a team.

His music is beautiful and his talk is energizing!

Yoga


Today, I went for my first real Yoga class with Arnaud, a friend of mine. I thought I'd be sitting next to a lot of ladies like the one on the right and meditate with them... Well, it was actually quite different! I actually had a real work out. After over an hour, it felt like 2 sets of waterskiing.

Apparently, Yoga improves your flexibility, helps you reduce weight, detoxifies the body, tones muscles, makes you more self aware, helps your relax and reduces stress.

As Arnold says: I'll be back!

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Be positive and live longer!

Extending longetivity: Increasing positive emotions could lengthen life span by 10 years. Based on studies that analysed blood counts, optimists were found to have more T4 or "helper" cells that fight against infection.

Positive


I am reading "How full is your bucket?" As one of my strengths is "positivity", this book really works for me. The authors reckon that positivity, giving praise and recognition raises productivity and engagement of employees. Indeed, 9 out of 10 people say they are more productive when they are around positive people. So go and praise someone!

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Flying faster


Over the past week, I've had a pretty hectic schedule; last week in Singapore and earlier this week in Switzerland. Both trips take about 6 1/2 hours. We haven't really improved on this for the past 40 years; planes are safer and more fuel efficient but they don't go any faster. I believe that will be the next big thing in civil aviation: the next generation Concorde. No reason why I couldn't do Dubai - Geneva in 2 hours in 20 years time! In the meantime, I'll enjoy the inflight entertainment...

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Eternal Hug!


For Valentine day, I thought I'd first look at the past: 5000 years of hugging! Unusual for me, but here goes for the longer lasting embrace:

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Looking great!



Do you know anyone who had botox injections, breast inplants, a face lift or lipo? Of course you do! In the future, people will use cosmetic enhancers even more. Get ready for a lot of good looking people walking around you!





A company I like in that field is Allergan (AGN) which is a leader in making fillers (like botox).

Let me know if you intend to use cosmetic surgery or cosmetic enhancers!

Some intersting stuff with growth forecasts:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4003049.stm
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/01/01/8368124/index.htm

Friday, February 9, 2007

Davos


Check out what some of the world's leaders say about the future of government, civil society and the internet:

I especially like what Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs (my former firm) says about what companies of the future need to stand for.

Friday, February 2, 2007

Sky diving senior


On my theme about living longer and fuller lives; A good friend of mine recently asked me if I had tried skydiving in the Emirates. Unfortunately, I have not parachuted since 1984, but I guess I could still pick it up again when I retire! (if my wife lets me!...)
Look at Dilys Price, 72, from Cardiff, who runs the Touch Trust, a charity which uses music, movement and massage to help people with disabilities.
At 54 she took up sky-diving and she describes herself as "an adrenaline addict".
"I do think there is prejudice about ageing but if you have a passion for something you can push through the doors," she says.

My 42nd!

Ok, I turned 42 today!

The good thing about birthdays - I always look at the good side of things - is that you feel wiser, get lots of presents and are surrounded by your family.

The bad thing is that you are older (in numbers).

But these days we stay younger a lot longer! How? As for me, I try to stay fit by:
- waterskiing (check out my picture on the bottom right hand side), swimming, windsurfing and skiing;
- popping vitamins and antioxydants every morning (E, C, Aspirin and Selenium);
- laughing a lot;
- discovering new places;
- keeping my weight in control (73kg, no more!)
- drinking red wine (yes, it works!...)

Modern science also helps us stay younger; I seriously broke my back 5 years ago, but except for a scar and some metal in my body, I cannot feel anything and continue to do all the sports I used to do! Stryker (SYK) makes the metal that goes in my spine and I'm a big fan of it! I believe that with Europeans and Americans getting older, there will be huge demand for the products that Stryker makes. Also, the people working there are really nice and good at what they are doing.

Gilles, 42 and kicking

PS: Check this guy out: according to him, I can still live 958 years!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4003063.stm

Monday, January 29, 2007

Why "InTheFutures"?

I picked that name for my blog because I am fascinated by the future! Actually, one of my strengths is "Futuristic".

On my blog, I will discuss how the future is shaping up; Where are we going? What will the world look like? What will we look like? How will we live? Where will we live? How will we make money? How will we have fun? Where will we travel?

Based on this, I hope to share some investment ideas. Of course, I will also share things about me and my personal and professional experiences.

And finally, as to why I chose the plural of Future:
1/ I believe that there are many possible futures: it's up to us to make it happen!
2/ Futures is a financial instrument and I thought that being in Finance, it would be opportune to have a reference to my field;
and 3/The site: " InTheFuture" was already taken! (that's the real reason!)

I hope you enjoy my blog!

Gilles